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game plan for the upcoming town hall debate on tuesday night. and the shuttle endeavour on a journey like never before. it is being towed from the airport to the california science center. the giant spacecraft making its way through narrow streets. the twelve mile trip is scheduled to take two days at the top speed of 2 miles an hour. very exciting to see. i'll so you back here at 6:00 p.m. on the fox news channel. right now we will get you back to the journal editorial report. have a good afternoon. >> a number. new polls have said romney is enjoying a post debate bounce. the average of national polls this week put him in the lead for the first time. with the run can candidate also gaining ground among key voting groups and in some important swing states. is the surge real and what can mitt romney do to sustain it? for answers we turn to

republican pollster witt, ayer. a couple weeks back before the debate when the republicans thought it was over, you were saying, no, this race is a lot closer. where does it stand now? >> thank you, paul. that was a pretty easy call. [laughter] >> today if you look at the effect of the debate, it's pretty significant. i'm talking about the first presidential debate. >> right. >> in the eight polls that were released in the week immediately before the debate, obama had a lead of 3.6 percentage points on average. in the seven polls that had been released so far in the week after the debate, romney has an average lead of 1.3 percentage points. that's a net turnaround of about 5 percentage points, which is very significant in race this close. there are some commentators who are saying the race is back where it was before the

conventions. i don't think that's right if you look at the data. romney is in a stronger position now than he was in in august. >> so is romney, is it fair to say romney is actually leading or is this essentially a tie? >> it's essentially a tie right now. the data is so close. but romney was behind by a field goal, now he's kicked a field goal and we have a tie race going into the final weeks. >> what voter groups have moved in the last three weeks? are you talking about independents, are you talking about specific demographic groups? who has moved? >> well, one group that hasn't moved are the strong partisans. democrats and republicans who turn out are going to vote for their own nominee. the key statistic to watch with the partisans is enthusiasm. and the presidential debate clearly help the republican enthusiasm and hurt the democratic enthusiasm. on the other hand, the group to watch as far as the ballot test goes are the independents because they are much less lock

into their particular pref presence at -- preference at the moment. your own poll showed that in virginia, according to wall street journal poll, independents moved a net seven points toward romney after the debate, and in ohio independents moved a net twelve points toward romney after the debate. those are big swings among independents, and it's one of the reasons romney is so much closer. >> if romney wins independents by that kind of margin, does he win the election? >> it all depends upon the relative turnout of democrats and republicans. >> okay. >> in 2008, democrats were seven points more than republicans in the electorate, but in 2004 there was no advantage for either party. so if we have an electorate that looks like 2004 and independents continue to support romney in these margins, of course romney will win. >> about about the disconnect or the difference between the national poll levels that are tied or have romney slightly leading and some of the state

policy where romney gains but obama still seems to have an advantage. ohio, for example, pennsylvania, wisconsin. you see obama picked up but romney still in the lead. why the disconnect? >> in pause because they lead nor democratic than some of the other swing states, and in part because the obama campaign has done a pretty good trashing mitt romney in places like ohio. but one thing we've seen since the presidential debate is a rising tied lifts all boats. romney has come up across the board f he can keep it going nationally, he will also keep it going in the swing states. >> the head of poll, they said they stopped polling in florida, north carolina and florida because they think the tied has moved so strong toward romney in those states they think romney is going to win those states. are you there yet? do you agree with that. >> i might buy that for north

carolina and 1/2. i don't yet buy that for virginia. i think it's still incredibly close in virginia right now. >> what do you think the shape of the electorate is going to be? you raise that point and it's a very interesting one. will it be like 2008 or is it going to be like 2004, which was an even break between democratic republicans, or are we talking about some kind of average in between? >> that, of course, is the question of the moment, paul. i think the best guess is somewhere between the no advantage in 2004 and the seven-point advantage in 2008. most presidential elections over the last 30 years have been somewhere around three to four-point advantages for democrats, but republicans have still managed to win because they did so well among independents. >> if there's a three or four percentage advantage this time for president obama and democrats, then romney really does need to poll very, very well with the independents. >> that's correct. and he has consistently done so

so far. he's doing better with them now. >> just briefly, what is the biggest surprise so far in this election cycle as you look at the polling data? >> i think the biggest surprise to me was the performance of mitt romney versus barack obama in the first presidential debate. that's the biggest mismatch i can remember since reagan and mondale in 1984. and the effect that that mismatch had on the polling numbers is pretty dramatic. >> okay. whitt, thanks so much for being here. >> thank you, paul. >> when we come back, with the president's poll numbers slipping, the obama campaign is going on the attack. but can their new strategy backfire? there's a kick to it. there's a pop. wahlalalalallala! pepper, but not pepper, i'm getting like, pep-pepper. it's kind of like drinking a food that's a drink, or a drink that's a food, zip zip zip zip zip! i'm literally getting zinged by the flavor.

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>> with the president's post debate numbers slipping, they are settling on a response. it's been dubbed the liar-liar strategy. take a look. >> are you taking gov. romney lied or was dishonest? >> yeah, i think he was. plenty of people pointed out -- if he was speaking last night he was lying. >> we expected an aggressive debater to show up last night on the debate stage with barack obama. we didn't expect an aggressively dishonest debater to show up. >> we're back with dan and bill, jason riley and kim.

so kim, what's behind this strategy of saying that everything that mitt romney says is made up? >> well, what's behind it is obama got thumped at the denver debate and basically all they had after that was to claim the guy that was up there had been fundamentally dishonest. this is one of the problems the obama campaign has, they aren't running on a positive agenda. they aren't offering new ideas. they want to scare the public about mitt romney's' general da. when mitt romney went out and explained himself so fluently and well in denver that's correct undercut that strategy so now they are turned to saying the guy is a liar, a hip democrat, a flip-flopper. >> are you saying this is all they got? >> this is all they got. and i think you saw that with joe biden too. it's pretty much all they got. >> i think it's what they have chosen to do. their problem was suggested by wing whitt was saying.

obama's dilemma is he also has to attack independent voters and the liar tactic is meant it energize democrats. >> but it's an ms-nbc. they love that. >> the problem is it's a mistake. it's a hard-edged word. and you notice joe biden did not use that. he said mularkey which is another way of saying the same thing. i think they will turn off a lot of independents if they keep pushing this lier and dishonesty lying. >> the governor of pennsylvania said, instead of just going on attack, what obama really needs in the next two debates is to actually tell people what he's going to do in a second term. >> exactly. >> to say why this next four years is actually going to make your life better than the last four years. >> right. liar doesn't do that. look, liar is a cheap and easy way out of things and railroad

disgusting sometimes, but its in apparently weak. you look like the weaker party. remember stop doyle, stop lying about my record, i worked in the white house with george bush. >> yeah, that was effective. >> bush lied, people died. we had liars thrown at us all the time and bush still got his war funded. he inherently makes you look week. it's not just the harshness, i think people tune that out. >> doesn't romney have to be prepared somehow to do more than what he did the first time? i thought he did an effect i have job of you are not telling the truth about what i'm saying without actually calling him auloier. auloier -- a liar. romney is going to have to do a little better than ryan did because ryan almost tack it a little too easily. jason? >> i agree. i think one of the problems with ryan's performance was allowing biden to get away with a lot of what you want to do, particularly on foreign policy,

is similar to what we are doing. he has to differentiate themselves. they have to differentiates themselves on all these things from foreign policy to the domestic policy. but one of the weaknesses of the liar claim, i don't think it works well with the general public. all politicians they think stretch the truth. i don't know it's effective en those grounds alone. >> they aren't trying to repute romney, they are trying to ruin romney and they have been trying to do that from the beginning. i kind of degree with you, paul. >> think next week mitt romney has to call barack obama out in this tactic and put it in his face and tell the american people exactly what is going on here. >> let's look at a new mitt romney ad that is new on the jobs and economy. >> look at the evidence of the last four years. we have 23 million people out of work or who have stopped look for work. they are suffering. the president would prefer to raise taxes. the problem with raising taxes, it slows down the rate of growth.

i'm not going to raise the taxes on anyone because when the economy is going slow, we are in recession, you shouldn't raise taxes on anyone. my idea is to bring down tacks to get more people working. my priority is putting people back to work in america. >> kim, is that an improvement over the other romney adds we've seen earlier? >> you beach cha. this is how it ties in taxes and jobs and the economy. that was the message that resonated when he was up there on stage with the president and the more he can spread it around the country, the better he does. >> that seems to me to be the winning strategy. particularly if you can put more explanations around the specific policies this will increase jobs. when we come back, the presidential race is tightening in all-important ohio. but that's not the only big's on the ballot. a look at the expensive and increasingly nasty senate show down there next.

>> turning now to the bags for control of the unite the states senate. this week we go to ohio where an iraq war veteran and josh mendel is taking on the democrat, brown. brown has the edge but both sides are spending big in the runup to november sixth, make particular one of the most expensive senate races of the cycle. bill, you've written a column about this race. who has the edge? you read the papers, you think sherrodd brown has the edge. he's smart, working class, a about good politician, but what i hear in ohio, not from the mandel campaign, i think mandel might squeak it out. you would never get that that

impression from reading the story. >> what is he running on? >> he's running on the economy. a lot of people are comparing him to romney. and certainly if romney gets a good turnout, that will help him. but some say it might be better to look at the ohio legislature where the republicans have control and they may be picking up more speed and mandel is kind of running on that same philosophy there. >> i know sherrod brown a little bit. he is a sparring partner and calls me on the phone and takes us to task sometimes. he's a populous guy, runs on china and the trade which plays into the manufacturing base. you are from ohio. you know that kind of politician sells in that state. >> it does up to a point, paul. about you you know what, it hasn't been selling that well recently. senator bob portman was elected in 2010 with 57% of the vote.

john kasik, a very conservative republican, was elected governor. but there's a base in ohio to support a candidacy like josh mandel. he's a young looking guy in his mid-30s is whether he has the depth and experience to step up to the senate level against someone like sherrod brown. that's what voters are trying to figure out about him right now. >> let's give viewers a shot at the both of them and how a couple of the ads that are running in this race. >> here we go, fans. sherrod brown steps on the field. i have to say unhis leadership ohio hasn't fared well. 287,000 jobs dropped. brown falls book for supporting the healthcare bell that cuts 700 billion from medicare spending. looks like a penalty. >> voting with obama 97% of the time. that will cost taxpayers 500 billion in tacks. >> he can't compete as long as sherrod brown is calling the

shots. >> the trade deficit that china has cost the united states almost 3 million jobs. >> sherrod brawn is calling for action against cheating china. >> they don't play fair and we have to fight back. >> he said his bill will force trade -- >> it creates and protects job by cracking down on chinese currency manipulation. >> i brought democrats and republicans together to pass legislation on china. now we can level the playing field for workers. i'm sherrod brown and i approve this megsage. >> why are they spending so much from polling in other races show they are closing race? >> because they think this is as good a pickup tune as any that might be out there. look, the reality is sherrod brown, you described him as a populous. that's true he runs as such. he's also a liberal senator who is stuck to the hip to the obama administration roar. so on stimulus, on obamacare, and this is a state that is not necessarily overly liberal, in

fact, it's conservative in many ways. they see this opportunity, they have this young man who is relatively new to politics, very charismatic, he's been a big fundraiser and he's already made up a lot of ground. at one point josh mandel was down 17 points in the polls. the fact some of them now has him ahead shows there's a real openness out there in ohio voters to change. >> what is really interesting about the outside groups, kim, is they are hanging barack obama's policies around sherrod brown's neck and i think that will have something to do with what happens in ohio at the presidential level. >> all right, dan. we have to take one more break. when we come back, hits and misses of the week.

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>> paul: time for hits and misses. week. kimberly restraining orders sell first for you. >> this is hit for david sea gull who is ceo of west gate

new york, sent a letter to employees if obama is re-elected and if he raises taxes he will have no choice but to cut jobs. this caused enormous controversy that he was threatening layoffs. baloney. what he actually, you wish more ceos would do he tied taxes on wealthy to the real world. >> this is myth to the obama administration in that famous russian reset that is supposed to be yielding us dividends. most recently russian government is not going to renew a 1991 treaty to help russians dismantle thousands of nuclear weapons. you add that to the expulsion by the aid in russia and you can see how this reset is working out for us. >> noble peace prize committee has given unusual awards over the years.

jimmy carter and obama in office. on friday the first time it came as an anti-depressant that you have done okay. the european union. that you brought peace to the continent and qualified hit. >> jack welsh set off a firestorm when he declared the process of the unemployment figures were cooked. in illinois, 1100 inmates in the county jails in prisons collected more than $2 million in unemployment from taxpayers. to collect it every two weeks you have to verify you are available for work and you are looking for work. given what they know about chicago, maybe they should look how they are voting. >> paul: it could be early. remember if you have your own hit or miss please send to us. follow us on twitter